Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 2.456024 2.594509 2.744116 2.919193 3.120407 3.346939 3.625054
2025-03-30 2.222458 2.402110 2.606665 2.861283 3.176698 3.565279 4.099872
2025-04-06 2.062459 2.259471 2.491032 2.790808 3.181489 3.695543 4.470969
2025-04-13 1.953438 2.161556 2.412095 2.746528 3.200792 3.833541 4.874654
2025-04-20 1.901985 2.126376 2.403328 2.785408 3.329062 4.139459 5.633594
2025-04-27 1.876527 2.119582 2.427258 2.866650 3.524555 4.586740 6.866023
2025-05-04 1.825420 2.075707 2.397873 2.868881 3.600024 4.853783 7.920445
2025-05-11 1.780783 2.036917 2.371537 2.871288 3.673749 5.134587 9.277978
2025-05-18 1.717210 1.969782 2.302131 2.803724 3.623004 5.162112 9.924727
2025-05-25 1.677529 1.932325 2.271191 2.790728 3.661763 5.381942 11.598561
2025-06-01 1.639389 1.895063 2.238188 2.771429 3.686242 5.577956 13.656038
2025-06-08 1.602612 1.858032 2.203438 2.746456 3.696858 5.745781 16.208297
2025-06-15 1.586161 1.849037 2.209602 2.788972 3.843201 6.319868 27.527608
2025-06-22 1.542201 1.800684 2.156713 2.732554 3.792946 6.354349 34.523724
2025-06-29 1.498830 1.751774 2.101077 2.668336 3.720747 6.308409 41.168200
2025-07-06 1.464739 1.714703 2.061356 2.628091 3.692666 6.390520 66.166913
2025-07-13 1.453318 1.708712 2.066958 2.663402 3.823123 7.034813 NaN
2025-07-20 1.452269 1.717052 2.094026 2.737014 4.048241 8.208675 NaN
2025-07-27 1.433396 1.699332 2.080699 2.739032 4.114760 8.830155 NaN
2025-08-03 1.415612 1.682566 2.068043 2.741210 4.182227 9.543874 NaN
2025-08-10 1.383836 1.644838 2.021745 2.680018 4.089483 9.338067 NaN
2025-08-17 1.364981 1.625320 2.003080 2.668228 4.117206 9.864383 NaN
2025-08-24 1.345706 1.604693 1.981968 2.650711 4.128631 10.326404 NaN